Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Swine Flu Reality Check

The swine flu has been breathlessly reported since the intitial outbreak almost three months ago. People wear surgical masks, travelers are quarantined, schools are closed and a low grade panic has been created.

If you've read The Stand by Stephen King, which described the spread of a deadly virus, you may be sitting on the edge of your seat waiting for the swine flu to sweep the countryside spreading misery and death.

This seems unlikely to happen. So far, there have been 141 deaths worldwide - which is tragic, to be sure - but significantly lower than the 500,000 lives lost every year (no, it's not a typo - the death toll is about 36,000 in the U.S. and a half million globally) to seasonal flus. The symptoms of the current edition have been markedly mild compared to typical influenzas.

In fairness to the Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization, this virus apparently has an ability to mutate readily and the concern is that it may modify into a truly dangerous version later on. This may or may not happen, but scientists are developing vaccines in the event it does.

In the meantime, we're dealing with a mild flu with a low mortality rate that's reported as a pandemic (everybody think 1918 and the lethal Spanish flu!). It's rarely explained that "pandemic" refers to the geographical spread of the disease, not its severity.

The media knows this, or should know it, but once it gets on a roll with a story line inertia seems to take over. The result is the reporting and repetition of misleading, hyped information tailored to promote an incorrect premise.

The media's pursuit of sensationalism reduces its credibility, which is disturbing if you really need to convey a serious message. Suppose a dangerous mutation does appear next year? How many will don surgical masks after this year's flu scare when most people don't even know anyone who got sick, those who did realized it was mild, and a statistically insignificant number of people died?

The media does this all the time, whether it's political, scientific, cultural or religious. If you watch story selection, interview editing and even non-verbal cues you can usually figure out what the bias is. And when you ask yourself, "does this really make sense?" it's amazing how often it doesn't.

Christianity is saddled with a slanted, negative story line that's been carried by the media for decades. And it's no more valid than the reporting of The Great Swine Flu Pandemic of 2009.

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